CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-04-03T16:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-04-03T16:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19654/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a large filament eruption best seen in the SW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk in SDO/AIA 304 and along the western limb in a few frames of STEREO A EUVI 304. The CME is first visible to the SW in STEREO A COR2 followed by SOHO LASCO C2 and C3.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-06T22:45Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-06T12:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-04-03T22:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 595
Longitude (deg): 7S
Latitude (deg): 8W
Half-angular width (deg): 38

Notes: Filament eruption from centre-SW disc, visible on Lasco and STEREO A COR2 as well as various H-alpha imagery, e.g. Cerro Tololo. Halo visible in Lasco, fit mainly between C2 and COR2 as too faint on C3. Reasonable confidence of arrival within UTC day of 06 April.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 65.02 hour(s)
Difference: 10.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-04-04T05:44Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement